How drought and extreme heat waves have reduced olive harvests
The impact of climate change on olive trees underscores the growing challenges that global warming poses to food production. Benchmark retail prices climbed to a record $9.000 per ton in October, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The healthiest cooking oil now comes at an even higher price as droughts, heat waves and climate change-induced wildfires devastate olive groves in southern Europe.
Extreme weather events for the second year in a row in the olive-producing region have reduced global harvests by almost half , driving olive oil prices to a record high.
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An August production estimate by the Spanish government confirmed the worst fears: a crisis in the olive oil markets . Several Mediterranean countries suffered dry weather and droughts, further straining supplies. As supplies from Mediterranean regions become increasingly erratic, many consumers may have to seek alternative sources that provide similar health benefits.
“ The olive oil supply shortage is becoming even more dramatic if current production estimates materialize. We consider it likely that olive oil prices will soon reach or exceed $10.000 per ton on the global market,” said Oil World, a leading industry forecaster, in an update on its website on October 20.
In a May forecast, Spain, which sets global prices and is the source of half the world's olive oil supply, said production is expected to fall by almost 48% compared to the previous year. A severe summer and wildfires in the world's largest producer had decimated much of its harvest.
EVOO prices: The direct impact on production costs
Traders say the supply crisis is worse than last year's and its impacts are spreading to food markets, restaurants and households, from Europe to the United States and India.
“Prices for imported extra virgin olive oil in India have risen by 22%. Restaurants are more likely to pass this on to their customers,” said Abhishek Agrawal of Comtrade, a commodity trading company. India consumes about 12.000 tons of olive oil annually, most of which is imported, according to the Indian Olive Association.
In May, the Italian government convened a crisis meeting after a 20% increase in pasta prices, driven in part by olive oil, sparked political protests. Spain's production in the 2023-24 agricultural season was approximately one-third lower than the four-year average , according to official figures.
Olive oil prices in Spain will remain at record levels at least until June , according to a Reuters report on October 26, citing Deoleo , the world's largest olive oil producer, and this will affect all importing nations.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has lowered its estimate for global olive oil production to 2,5 million tons , a quarter less than the five-year average. According to experts, consecutive droughts and wildfires in southern Europe point to extreme weather events linked to climate change.
Spain recorded its third hottest summer this year , with an average summer temperature 1,3 degrees Celsius above normal, according to the state meteorological agency AEMET.
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“Climate change is changing the way Europe produces food,” Dorothy Azory, head of a federation of olive growers in southern Europe, declared in her magazine last month. Last year, research by the World Weather Attribution service found that climate change had made drought at least 20 times more likely in Europe, with implications for global and continental food security.
How will climate change affect the quality of extra virgin olive oil?
Climate change will significantly alter the quality of extra virgin olive oil (EVOO), primarily by modifying its phenolic profile , oil accumulation , and the biological development of the fruit. Rising temperatures tend to reduce the total concentration of polyphenols, critically affecting secoiridoids—the compounds responsible for the oxidative stability , bitterness, and spiciness of EVOO—and causing drastic reductions in key substances such as oleuropein.
Furthermore, heat stress during ripening reduces olive growth and decreases maximum oil accumulation by up to 20%. These high temperatures accelerate phenological stages (flowering, fruit set, and ripening), causing oil synthesis to occur during the hottest months and forcing producers to bring forward the harvest in real time to preserve quality.
However, the final impact varies depending on the variety, water availability, and the exact moment the plant experiences stress, even affecting the distribution of antioxidants between the aqueous and oily phases during the extraction process.
