Decline in Türkiye’s olive oil production

Turkey Anticipates a Drastic Drop in Olive Oil Production

The Turkish olive oil sector is preparing to face one of the most difficult and challenging seasons in recent years. Projections for the 2025/2026 agricultural cycle point to a dramatic and significant drop in extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) production. This forecast of scarcity contrasts sharply with the euphoria experienced during the previous season, in which Turkey reached historically high harvest levels, briefly positioning itself as a dominant player in the global market.

The sharp expected decrease in the volume of Turkish olive oil is not an isolated phenomenon but the convergence of agronomic and climatic factors that have severely affected the productive potential of the olive groves. Historically, the olive tree has been a resilient plant, but its very nature imposes a production rhythm that is now becoming evident.

🌳 Key Factors Behind the Decrease

The main agronomic reason is the Natural Biennial Cycle (or alternate bearing). The olive tree, like many other fruit species, tends to alternate between a “high year” (of large production) and a “low year” (of lower production). The 2024/2025 season was a record harvest year for the country, which naturally stresses the trees, depleting their reserves. Therefore, the 2025/2026 season is, by default, a “low year” that demands a productive rest for most groves.

Added to this natural pattern are the Adverse Climatic Conditions, which acted as a negative multiplier. The critical phase of flowering and fruit set was compromised by a combination of stressful factors. In many producing regions, the prolonged drought drastically reduced the available soil moisture, limiting the olive tree’s ability to sustain flowering and initial fruit development. Furthermore, the incidence of a severe winter and extreme temperature variations during spring negatively impacted the viability of the flower, resulting in poor fruit set and, consequently, very low yields in a large part of the country.

📉 Impact on Projections and the Market

The disparities in the estimates reflect the current uncertainty. While international bodies such as the International Olive Council (IOC) have projected a national production of between 280,000 and 290,000 tonnes, a number that already represents a significant drop, analyses closer to Turkish producers and traders handle considerably more pessimistic figures. These local analysts place the total production of Turkish olive oil in a much smaller range, between 150,000 and 180,000 tonnes.

To contextualize the magnitude of this drop, the lowest projection represents barely a third of the impressive 475,000 tonnes harvested during the previous season. This production gap will have direct consequences for both domestic consumers and export markets.

Despite the low volumetric yields, a positive note for producers is the expectation that the quality of Turkish olive oil will remain high. Less quantity of olives on the tree often results in a higher concentration of polyphenols and aromas, which benefits the quality of the final EVOO.

However, the central concern is economic. This generalized scarcity, not only in Turkey but also in other key Mediterranean countries, will exert upward pressure on prices both nationally and internationally. Consumers and importers must prepare for an increase in the product’s cost, while Turkish producers, despite the higher prices, will face the challenge of compensating for the drastic decrease in sales volume, making the 2025/2026 campaign a true test of resilience and management for the vibrant Turkish olive oil sector.